One of the most important questions that people ask when they make the decision to have a child is: how long is it going to take us to get pregnant? The probabilities mentioned by doctors provide an answer to this question. But these probabilities are estimates at best (albeit, no doubt, educated estimates!) and are associated with some not insignificant uncertainties. Here is an approach to judge how important is the value of the monthly probability in determining the time to conception, using basic probability distributions and R visualisations:
http://www.r-bloggers.com/how-much-time-to-conceive/
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